In line with the project objectives, work under SECURES will be grouped into five thematic work packages (WP2, 3, 4, 5 and 6) and will be based on three main pillars:
- Analysis of climate change and decarbonization induced changes in weather, electricity demand and supply: The purpose of this pillar is to conduct a thorough analysis of expected changing patterns in electricity demand and supply induced by climate change and required decarbonization. As a starting point, in WP2 (Impacts of climate change on meteorological patterns in Austria and Europe) we will analyze changing patterns in weather conditions that can be expected in times of climate change based on observations and projections for Austria, presenting a representative selection of climate change scenarios for Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5. This serves to derive key parameters that determine the potential and operating conditions of the future power plant fleet (including temperature, wind speed, precipitation and corresponding water flow) in temporally and geographically high resolution. Since the Austrian power grid is well interconnected with neighboring countries, the overall analysis must be carried out not only for Austria but also for other European countries in order to include cross-border power exchanges in an appropriate manner. in temporally and geographically high resolution. Special attention is paid to the particularities of the Alpine region, especially to the hydrological runoff. The processing of the derived key meteorological parameters into electricity generation patterns for hydro, wind, solar and thermal power plants in accordance with the requirements of energy system models will then be carried out in WP3 (Impact of changing patterns on future electricity demand and supply). In addition to the changing supply patterns due to climate change, we will analyze in detail the expected developments and changes in electricity demand due to climate change and decarbonization, taking a closer look at the increase in sector coupling (e-cooling, e-heating, e-transportation, e-industry) in the coming years.
- Modeling scenarios to ensure a reliable, sustainable and cost-efficient transition of the Austrian power sector in times of climate change: Our second pillar is the modeling and corresponding analysis of prospective scenarios - cf. WP4 (Model-based analysis). Building on the assessment of patterns of change, we will conduct a comprehensive prospective model-based analysis of the future electricity sector in Austria. We will first define a broad set of scenarios for the transition of the Austrian electricity sector in times of climate change and then derive them using our proven modeling system.The scenarios will be derived jointly with stakeholders (as part of our third pillar, stakeholder dialogue and consolidation), but are intended to encompass all identified key options for both electricity supply and demand, including all relevant sectors such as electric cooling and heating, electric transport and decarbonization of industry:
- On the supply side, we will consistently evaluate different technology portfolios and supply patterns (considering climate impacts) in line with policy targets (2030 and beyond) (#mission2030, NECP).
- In terms of demand, we will build on a detailed analysis of future demand trends reflecting decarbonization needs and climate change impacts.
- In addition, we will base trends for infrastructure developments (grid development) and include all relevant flexibility options.
- The overall assessment will focus on security of supply, including an analysis of flexibility needs and corresponding options to meet that demand, as well as economic efficiency, considering both investment and system and policy costs. To identify technology portfolios that provide economic efficiency and reliability/security of supply, it is critical to broaden the scope of analysis. Consequently, the scenarios evaluated will incorporate all identified changes in weather conditions, and we will look more closely at extreme circumstances (i.e., expected droughts, floods, dark lulls). Our goal is to identify (a subset of) scenarios that will enable a reliable, sustainable, and cost-effective transition of the Austrian power sector to cope well with all expected changes.The analysis will be based on three power system models: For the model-based assessment of security of supply and cost impacts at the power system level, we will use two power system models, both of which allow modeling of the electricity sector at high temporal resolution:
- The high-resolution power flow system model AIT-MarketFlow for detailed assessment of all defined critical aspects of the Austrian power system. The model includes a detailed representation of the European transmission grid. Austria is modeled in great detail, with district heating sectors, e-vehicles and a very detailed representation of hydropower plants. In addition, grid-related sector coupling options (power to heat/cooling, power to vehicle, and power to gas) are included. Using this model, we will assess the robustness and vulnerability of power generation in Austria and other European countries to different weather conditions and changes in water, temperature, solar radiation and wind speed. Suitable adaptation options for the electricity sector in Austria will be evaluated. The model will simulate the future operation of the electricity system through rolling optimization, but not the investment decisions.
- Supplementary, for the future investment decisions, but also for validation purposes, we will use the open source energy system model Balmorel in this project. The Balmorel model has been used in several projects in a variety of countries. It is a partial equilibrium model for analyzing electricity and district heating in an integrated perspective. It allows us to provide an open model platform and all relevant data to the public, providing a transparent basis for public discussion and policy support to all interested stakeholders. The model has been used for several research projects of AIT (e.g. Era-Net project DeCAS and H2020 project REACT ) and TU Wien (H2020 MUSTEC ) and already covers Austria. It will be further extended (i.e. inclusion of more flexibility options, better geographical representation of district heating) for Austria and its European neighbors.
- The application of two models (AIT-MarketFlow & Balmorel) will allow a mutual validation of the results. In addition, the well-established and proven Green-X model of TU Vienna will be used for the analysis of the cost impact of the transition to renewable energy, especially for investments and the need for public support.
- Stakeholder dialog and consolidation: The third pillar concerns improving the decision-making process, facilitating informed stakeholder dialog and providing targeted support for Austria's policymakers. Transparency in terms of what we produce and how we produce it appears to be of key importance here. We will therefore involve Austria's key stakeholders from the outset, informing them about our approach and incorporating their feedback into the definition of the scenarios. Thanks to the established open model and database platform, we will then also openly share our results and how they are arrived at. Targeted policy recommendations for the way forward will incorporate stakeholder feedback and serve to facilitate decision-making and inform public discourse. The goal is to enable Austrian policymakers and stakeholders to overcome and resolve potential trade-offs related to energy security, the need for decarbonization, and the consequences for the Austrian economy, all of which are affected by the increasing impacts of climate change.